The East African Standard

Tuesday, March 16, 2004

The horrifying result of US travel ban on Kenya
By Nick Wachira

There has been so much talk in the diplomatic and tourism circles about the effect of the US government’s security alert and travel ban on Kenya.

But none of the arguments analyzing the impact of the security alerts on the Kenyan tourism industry grossly misrepresents reality than the one advanced by US Ambassador, William M. Bellamy.

In a speech delivered before the members of the American Business Association in Kenya on November 20, 2003, Bellamy said that: "The decline of Kenya’s tourism industry is not due to the US or other travel advisories."

He went ahead to argue that the recent decline of the tourism industry is rooted in a longer term loss of competitiveness, the same ailment that has affected much of the rest of the Kenya economy. This quote is contained in the quarterly newsletter of the American Business Association published last month.

While we must admit that the Kenyan tourism industry is over-burdened with the heavy baggage containing the economic sins committed by the past Kanu regime, Bellamy’s argument horrendously underplays the price Kenya is paying for its close association with US in the fight against terrorism.

At a time when Kenya is bending over backwards to gain economic favours from the US, Bellamy’s comments were symptomatic of the patronizing posture that President George Bush’s foreign policy has been displaying towards small developing countries.

To be honest Belllamys gave a good speech that accurately analysed the economic problems Kenya is facing today and gave a good account of the US involvement in trying to solve this problems. However, the contention that these column is trying to prove in a very narrow sense is that the US foreign policy is as far as security alerts and travel bans imposed on its citizens is hurting Kenya. And in this sense, the Bush administration by continue to maintain the travel bans on Kenya almost six months after other major nations of the world lifted their bans is hurting the Kenyan economy. With time if the bans persist, these policy actions will not only slow down the recovery of the Kenyan economy and hence increase the incidence of poverty but will also inflame the anti-American sentiments locally.

Since tourism is hurting mostly at the Kenyan coast, which harbours a huge Muslim population, rising unemployment in this region is likely to be interpreted as an economic sanction. When this is viewed together with the Suppression of Terrorism Bill with its perceived limitations to personal liberties, the travel ban will defeat all the gains made in the fight against terrorism. It will also generally hurt the friendship that the two countries are trying to make.

To understand the impact of the travel bans on Kenya, let us review the facts.

In May 20003, the US and Britain placed a "non-essential travel ban" on Kenya. Intelligence sources had picked up information about an "Imminent threat" on aircraft, specifically British registered. British Airways promptly suspended its flights to Kenya for almost a month. Other countries including: Germany, France, Belgium, Hungary and Australia imposed bans on Kenya, but lifted them in June 2003.

The US however extended its ban in September, pushed it to March 13, 2004 and even issued another one last December. As of last week, the US had not withdrawn its ban on Kenya. A study conducted by Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kenya details the impact of this bans on Kenyan tourism. The study shows estimates the direct impact of the travel ban imposed by the UK government alone cost the economy UK£108 million. This is equivalent to 1.6 per cent of Kenya’s national wealth. The direct impact has been mostly felt at the coast where hotels have suffered massive loss of bookings and excess capacity resulting in 10,000 locals being laid off. The impact of these bans is expected to slow down the recover of the industry in 2004. Two major industries have suffered most.

The Horticultural industry lost UK£3.5 million as a result of being unable to export fresh produce due to flight cancellations and the expense associated with premium freight costs, says the government report.

"The ban has also caused a serious loss of revenue to the Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS) estimated at nearly UK£7 million," says the report. "This sum, which represents around 10 per cent of KWS’s annual revenue, has already been reflected in a scaling back of operations with a resulting impact on the wildlife and ecology of the country."

The direct impact of the US travel ban has had a similar effect on the economy of the coast region. According to Kenya Tourism Board (KTB) data, before the US travel warning, tourist arrivals in 2003 were showing growth of 22 per cent against 2002. After the travel ban tourist arrivals fell by 42 per cent against the 2002 level of 23,196 in the period between May and December of each year. The overall effect of the US travel ban is that less that half the tourists that had been budgeted for visited Kenya in 2002 .

There it is, as much as we can trust the government data, we can clearly see that the US travel ban poses a present and clear danger to Kenya’s tourism industry and the recovery of her economy. It cannot be denied that both Kenya and the US have paid very heavy prices as a result of terrorism acts on their soil.

The way to defeat the enemy is however not by imposing unintended economic consequences on a poor country by a super-power. Even for all the claims that the US is protecting her citizens, its leaders must bear in mind a much larger picture of the world. And in any case there are still many US citizens residing and doing business in the country.

They believe it is a safe country but their government does not believe so. The question here is not who is right between the US government and those who believe the ban should be lifted, it is in the continued justification of the advisories